Category Archives: blog

blog, diversity, news, politics, race

To fuel his rise, Newt Gingrich loves the undocumented– but just a little bit; Plus, a few thoughts on Herman Cain and the unofficial HCSAI—Herman Cain Sexual Appetite Index.

Newt Gingrich knows how to polarize, so why wouldn’t he be the guy on the right talking about some kind immigration reform? No one else is on the left,or the right.

Check out my Amok comments on the Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund blog :

www.aaldef.org/blog

Gingrich’s ploy is really a smart way for the GOP to seem diverse without really being diverse. People in Washington are already talking about the demographic edge with people of color that Obama has. But the Democrats have a bad habit of ignoring the people they love. 

Newt needs to give some people of color an alternative–even if it’s a laughbly bad alternative, this idea of giving some undocumented immigrants legal status,but not citizenship.

It also gives GOP hardliners on immigration a softer edge.  Newt needs that to appeal to the Marco Rubio wing.

So the legalization idea is just  Gingrich using extreme wedge politics that’s more self-serving than humanitarian.

Legalization for some undocumented isn’t amnesty, but Newt will get the effect he wants:  Differentiation from Romney, Perry and the others.

For more check out my Amok column on the Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund blog….

www.aaldef.org/blog

NOW ABOUT THAT HERMAN CAIN FELLOW….

He”s “suspending” his campaign. Just like a student gets suspended, there’s always hope the Principal will let him back him for something.

A fly-by at the GOP convention? But yes, it’s over. And isn’t this all Cain wanted anyway?  It was just a chance to pimp his book and sell his speeches so he can command Gingrich level $60,000 and up fees. He didn’t really want to be president. Like the Redford candidate in the film of the same name, he surely didn’t want to win the nomination and be put in the position of “Now what?”  He just wanted a platform a presidential campagin could give him, sort of like a super Facebook page.

So the Cain Train is suspended, but I still sort of see him as the lone guy riding on the subway at night, looping around waiting for an audience to appear, muttering “9-9-9.”  Books and speeches for sale. Maybe a reality show. Maybe Fox Business will hire him.

As the campaign ends, so ends the relevance of the HCSAI: The Herman Cain Sexual Appetite Index.  (It seems to be healthier than his appetite for pizza).

On the bright side, Cain’s left with his family intact, for now.

And we are only left to wonder what an Obama/Cain post-racial American presidential fantasy might have been.

blog, news, politics

Update: How the West was won? Mayor Ed Lee’s an elected after a Ranked Choice victory in San Francisco

 I’ve lauded Ed Lee for reaching “Gold Mountain,” when he was named interim. That alone was a tremendous accomplishment for the community lawyer turned bureaucrat. But his evolution to “elected” is all the more fascinating because of Ranked Choice Voting.

RCV is process that redistributes the votes, working from the bottom up.  Each time a last placed candidate was eliminated in the field of 16, a voter’s second choice is distributed accordingly to the named candidate still alive in the race.

Lee, who led at the end of election night Tuesday with  31 percent of the vote to Avalos’ 18 percent, was stalled with just 38 percent of the vote as the RCV vote count was underway Wednesday.

But Lee’s stock rose in round 7 when Public Defender Jeff Adachi was eliminated.

Adachi’s second place votes went mostly to City Attorney Ed Herrera, who got 2,100. Board President David Chiu had  1,721. But Lee did better with 1,935.

Lee’s ability to amass a large number of No.2 votes, particularly from the other top Asian American candidates’ ballots was significant.

In round 8, when State Senator Leland Yee was eliminated,  Herrera took 2,092 of Yee’s second choice votes.  Chiu took 2,275.  But again, Lee got the most from Yee:  2,992 second place votes.

In round 9, Chiu, who raised more than a million dollars and won the endorsement of the San Francisco Chronicle, was eliminated.  The winner of Chiu’s second choice votes were Herrera at 2,376, Avalos with 3,832.  And again, there was Lee getting a huge chunk, 5,894.

Remember Chiu ran only after Lee promised not to run, but then Lee ran anyway.  Lee was like a siphon on Chiu for first and second choice votes. In fact, Chiu’s seconds got Lee close to a majority with 49.02 percent of the votes, but it would take one more round to win it all.

In round 10, when Herrera was eliminated, 6,883 of his second place votes went to Avalos, the top name on the Democratic Party’s slate.  But again, there was Lee who took 4,705 No.2s from Herrera.

That’s all Lee needed to enter the 11th round with a whopping 61 percent, more than enough votes for a majority.

And that’s how the sausage was made.

Update: The above analysis was after first 11 rounds of Ranked Choice counts and re-distributions from Wednesday. 

Thursday’s  count added a 12th round which changed the numbers only slightly as Lee virtually held the same lead, 61 percent to Avalos’ 39 percent. But the race technically is over when Lee got 50 percent and 1 vote.

One interesting fact: Lee padded his vote count significantly by being the second choice for backers of Chiu, Yee and Adachi. Those sloppy seconds added nearly 20 percent to Lee’s total vote.

See my Amok column on the Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund blog at www.aaldef.org/blog

blog, news, politics

You can drop the interim now:Ed Lee is San Francisco’s first elected Asian American mayor

The second choices have spoken: Ed Lee has 61 percent of the vote, more than enough for the majority needed to win the San Francisco mayoral election.

Supervisor John Avalos more than doubled his election night position with 39 percent of the vote, but it was not enough to keep Lee from making history.

The vote was released at 4pm, with an intial listing showing just provisional ballots counted on this day. It showed virtually no change. But when 11 rounds of Ranked Choice ballots were posted, Lee was named on enough second choice ballots to take a commanding 25,000 vote lead.

Avalos told KCBS radio he is not conceding the race as 35,000 ballots still remain uncounted. 

Until that concession comes, Lee technically is only the “presumptive” winner.

More results will be posted by the city at 4pm Thursday.

blog, news, politics, race

Ranked Choice to determine history in SF as Lee leads by 13 percent in first round of mayoral race

For whatever people may say about Ranked Choice Voting, it sure didn’t cut into the power of incumbency.

Even a short-time interim candidate has an enormous advantage as we witnessed with Ed Lee.

His vote pattern for the night was fairly predictable: A huge lead with nearly 40 percent of the early mail in vote,  and then a gradual settling to 31 percent (44,451 votes) by the time all the precincts were counted.

The showing of Supervisor John Avalos (26,447/18.7 percent), and City Attorney Dennis Herrera (15,967/1127 percent) were also somewhat predictable. In a Democratic town, both were one and two on the party slate card. A huge advantage and what some wondered was a racist tactic. Five key Asian American candidates, including the interim, and none get named to one of  the top two slots?

The real question mark was how the Asian American candidates would do on their own, and it seemed break  down by money raised. Boardof  Supervisor President David Chiu raised the most money in the least time compared to the other candidates overall. But without the party or incumbency behind him, he  managed only a  fourth place finish (12,655/8.93 percent).

State  Sen. Leland Yee was next with 10,595 votes, or  7.48 percent of the vote, perhaps showing how most of his ardent support in his two-county senate seat may be primarily in San Mateo County.

Public Defender Jeff Adachi was sixth with 9.075 votes or 6.41 percent.  Adachi filed his candidacy on the last day and was also tied to a bold but unpopular pension reform proposal  that also lost on Tuesday.

Just imagine if Ed Lee had kept his word to David Chiu and not run for Mayor.

Chiu just might be sitting were Lee is right now, leading—but not by a majority.

Instead,  the top 6 finishers have 65.5 percent of the vote.

That means that likely the bottom ten with 35 percent of the vote will determine if and when Ed Lee gets the majority he needs.

Lee sits at 31.38. If he’s on slightly more than 19 percent of the second choice ballots of the bottom 10 candidates, he wins. It may be over before we have to count  the No.2 choice of Yee at  5th place.

This is either the power of the folly of Ranked Choice Voting. The bottom folks have more power than you think. 

Wouldn’t it be better just to have a runoff? More costly, but perhaps more transparent and definitely easier to understand. 

RCV makes one wonder, “What the hell happened to my vote?”

The next tally is due by 4pm PST.