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Let the games begin: 100 percent of the vote has been counted in SF, and Ed Lee needs 19 percent more of Ranked Choice ballots to win

Interim Mayor Ed Lee finished the count of first choice ballots with 44, 451 votes or 31.38 percent.

John Avalos was next with 26,447 votes, or 18.67 percent.

 Dennis Herrera was third with 15,967 or 11.27 percent.

David Chiu was fourth with  12,655 votes, 8.93 percent.

Only these three have an outside chance of catching Lee who needs 50 percent plus 1.

He better hope he was nice to supporters of the 5th through 10th finishers.

They are:

Leland Yee with 10,595 votes  or 7.48 percent.                                                                  

Jeff Adachi, 9,075 votes, or 6.41 percent.

Bevan Dufty, 6704 votes, or 4.73 percent.

Tony Hall, 5,164 votes, or 3.65 percent.

Michela Alioto Pier, 5,063 votes, or 3.57 percent

Joanna Rees, 2,280 votes, or 1.61 percent

These candidates  carry the bulk of the also-ran vote. As they get eliminated, their 2nd and 3rd choice ballots get distributed to whomever is designated.

If Ed Lee gets just  19 percent more of those votes he wins and makes history as the city’s first elected Asian American mayor.

This is where the last minute mudslinging might make a difference. Lee got his first place votes, but did all the news of voter fraud and campaign impropriety get him knocked off other candidates’ No.2 or No.3 ballots?

If it did, the trend of the shrinking Ed Lee lead could continue as Avalos, Herrera and possibly Chiu pick up 2nd choice votes.

If  no one has a majority, then the registrar starts counting the third choice votes.

Is this really worth not having another election between the top two candidates?

While the elections office listed an 11:30on  release of results, it looks as if the new results from the ranked choice balots will be at 4pm on Wednesday.

By then, Lee could have 50 percent plus 1, or not. If he didn’t get enough people to make him their No.2 choice, this could be a long and frustrating count lasting until Friday.

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With 94percent of precincts counted, Lee’s margin shrinks again, 31.66 percent to Avalos’ 18.42

Interim Mayor Ed Lee’s edge is now down to 13 points as almost all of the first place votes are counted.

With 93.94 precints tallied, Lee had 43,366 votes or 31.66 percent to Avalos’ 25,235 votes, 18.42 percent of the voteb.

In subsequent updates, only Avalos has surged closer to Lee.

Dennis Herrera is third with 15,329 votes, or 11.19 percent.

David Chiu is fourth with 12,178, or 9 percent.

Once all the first choice votes are tallied, the second and third choices will be counted. That’s when the Ranked Choice Voting fun really begins.

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Update:With 59 percent of precincts counted in SF Mayoral race, Lee’s early lead wilts, Avalos comes on, other APA candidates trail

With 59 percent of the votes now counted,  Ed Lee’s early big lead has shrunk to just a 17 percentage point lead over his next challenger, Supervisor John Avalos.

Lee had 36,956 vote or 33.28 percent of the vote. Avalos had 18,496 votes or 16.66 percent.

City Attorney Dennis Herrera was third with 12,482 or 11.24 percent of the vote.

As expected, the race tightens with Avalos, the top name on SF Democratic voter pamphlets, picking up steam.

The other premier Asian American candidates, David Chiu, Leland Yee, and Jeff Adachi were still in single digits.

If no one has a majority, the winner will be the candidate who can rack up the most 2nd choice votes.

With the top ten candidates getting over 95 percent of the vote, if  Lee is in the No. 2 spot of candidates standing 6th through 10, currently Dufty, Hall, Alioto Pier, and Rees, it could be enough to give him the majority he needs for victory.

Next tally results set for 10:30 p.m.

Official results:

http://sfelections.org/results/20111108/

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Update: San Francisco Interim takes big step toward history: Ed Lee has 39.85 percent of the vote by mail turnout

Interim Mayor Ed Lee took the big lead in the first release of vote-by-mail ballots in the SF Mayoral race.

Lee got a commanding  26,621 votes or 39.85 percent of the votes counted so far.

Supervisor John Avalos and City Attorney Dennis Herrera are next with 10.6 percent and 10.24 percent, respectively. Both candidates were endorsed by the San Francisco Democratic Party.

Board of Supervisors President David Chiu was in fourth with 8.36 percent.

State Senator Leland Yee was in fifth with 8.25 percent.

Public Defender Jeff Adachi  was in sixth with 6.33 percent.

This first tally includes just the vote by mail which represents about 14.59 percent of all voters. The next release of votes at 9:45 will include the first ballots from today’s polling.

Those votes could reflect a totally different voter sentiment in light of voter  fraud allegations made against some of Lee’s supporters.

But if the trend continues, Lee would be very close to the 50 percent and 1 vote he needs to secure victory.

The top ten candidates received 97.65 percent.

If no one receives a majority,  the Ranked Choice Voting will eliminate the lowest ranking candidate one by one and distribute their backers’ 2nd and 3rd choices until one candidate gets a majority of the vote.

More detailed results at :

http://sfelections.org/results/20111108/